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Some advice for Werner Faymann.

By

on September 29, 2008 8:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

The Austrians had yet another election yesterday, and it wasn't a pretty sight. Just like Germany, the centre-left and centre-right were in a grand coalition, and if I were in the German SPD or CDU I'd be looking over the border in alarm.

The equivalent centrist parties are down, although they are still the largest parties. Depressingly, the main winners were two extreme rightwing groupings. There's also a strong Green vote, just short of 10%.

There are also, unusually for Europe, no leftists and no liberals, which reduces the options significantly. The results are above - click for a larger image.

92 seats is a majority, and the permutations are grim. Again, a grand coalition is the only way two parties can get to that number. There are no other options to make a majority without the hard right, and for the centre-right to make any other majority they'd need both lots of extremists.

Anyway, it's a mess. Werner Faymann is the social democrat leader and the likely Chancellor, and there's an obvious way out for him - minority government. The Greens will be sensible ad hoc partners, and on budgets and other key legislation he'd need to woo the centre-right.

There is a silver lining - the two extremist parties hate each other, and may well vote opposite ways just to spite each other. Sometimes they will win votes, sure, but only if they overcome their animosity to each other, and bring the centre-right in as well.

It's the only answer to a grim question. Come over, Herr Faymann, have a chat to Salmond and see how you too could learn to stop worrying and love minority administration.

Update: my calculations above were wrong, and the SPD could get to 93 seats with the FPÖ - that's the only other two-party coalition that could work. Except for the ideological gulf, of course.

Agreeing with the Republican right.

By

on September 28, 2008 10:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

I don't think I've ever done that before. Let's see: war, homophobia, racism, climate change denial, fraud, hypocrisy. Nope, never agreed with them on any of that. Yet the $700bn plan to nationalise US banking losses put Obama on the wrong side, backing Bush despite the cost to his own plans, while the only congressional opposition came from the Republicans, specifically Senator Shelby, who said:

"What troubles me most is that we have been given no credible assurances that this plan will work. We could very well spend $700 billion or $1 trillion and not resolve the crisis. Before I sign off on something of this magnitude, I would want to know that we have exhausted all reasonable alternatives. But I don't believe we can do that in a weekend."

Now, they've got absolutely the wrong end of the stick about the plan. Republican Senator Jim Bunning said the plan was "financial socialism, and it's un-American". I always thought socialism was about giving money from the rich to the poor, not the other way round as per the Bush/Paulson/Bernanke plan, but perhaps I misread Uncle Karl. While their specific concerns are not the same as mine - 180 degrees away, in fact, given my sympathies are with this lot - the conclusion was the same. This plan is bonkers and it won't work.

But now even the Republican opposition has collapsed - presumably they finally worked out that the plan was a massive give-away to their pals - and it'll all go through. Will the credit ratings agencies now do what they'd do to anyone else picking up these toxic debts, and mark down the US Government for the first time from AAA? If you're looking for signs of the impending end of the American imperial phase, that would be a pretty clear one.

Incidentally, over here, the New Labour response is as weak and captured by the markets as the Obama response. Will Hutton wrote today, backing the scheme, that "Once again, the left is coming to capitalism's rescue". Is this a model of capitalism the left should really want to rescue, even with his sea of caveats?

Brown's response was also a mass of absurdities and inconsistencies. He decried the "age of irresponsibility" which he himself has sponsored, then in the next breath said:

"I have told President Bush today that facing global turbulence Britain supports the US plan. Whatever the details of it, it is the right thing to do."

Isn't it irresponsible to support a plan like this irrespective of the details? It's the classic failed politician's response, and it goes like this. Something must be done, and this is something, therefore this must be done. We should perhaps be grateful that this time he's not recommending wasting our money. Nevertheless, this whole scenario feels as though the Joker or the KLF have been put in charge of the global banking system.

In praise of.. Ecuador.

By

on September 24, 2008 12:37 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

It sounds like tree-hugging taken to the next level - rights for forests, rivers, and even air?

Yet this constitutional proposal before the Ecuadorian people promises exactly that (detailed wording here), to help Ecuador take on the multinationals who currently use the rivers as open sewers for their industrial waste, amongst other egregious behaviour.

Ecuador has extraordinary natural riches to protect, including the various iconic inhabitants of Galapagos (like the sealion cub pictured above). Constitutional rights might not be the most immediately obvious way to deliver those protections, but it's an interesting idea, and I hope we get a chance to see how well it works.

Representation or aspiration?

By

on September 23, 2008 8:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I like this anti-McCain impromptu jpeg below, but then again I am not exactly the target audience. Might the cult of material aspiration in the States blunt what seems like an obvious message to the likes of me? Given that folk buy into that attitude elsewhere, at an emotional level, might they not do so in an election as well? The test would be: how did Diddy's shout out to his brothers and sisters in Saudi Arabia for cheap oil for his private jet go down?

Sex officials in oil scandal.

By

on September 11, 2008 5:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The BBC ran a story today about the "ethical failure" at the American Department of the Interior, entitled US oil officials in sex scandal.

Earl Devaney, the investigator, found that officials rigged contracts, moonlighted as private contractors, and had sex with workers they were meant to be overseeing. All in the name of market intelligence.

The line I particularly noticed was "Sexual relationships with prohibited sources cannot, by definition, be arms-length". It might just be me, but is there a good reason why he appears to have exempted spanking?

I also mistakenly read the second word of the headline, seeing it as "oiled", while a wag here imagined a future Green government being exposed to the opposite sort of scandal, as per my title above.

Community organizers versus Governors.

By

on September 8, 2008 5:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

You may think I'm slow on the uptake, and here's some proof. Sarah Palin's speech last week included the following dig at Obama:

"I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a community organizer, except that you have actual responsibilities."

Here are the two best responses:

"Jesus was a community organizer, and Pontias Pilate was a governor."

That should resonate with what the Republicans call "The Base", which incidentally translates into Arabic as Al Qaeda.

And, also via Chez, comes the following corker. (noticed by others)

Apologies for the American spelling throughout. I am bilingual, and I like to practice. I do think it provides a little local color, though.

Like the SNP, only Alaskan.

By

on September 3, 2008 9:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (7)

It turns out that Sarah Palin used to back the Alaskan Independence Party, logo: polar bear. Presumably she left because they were too pro-polar bear and insufficiently in favour of warming the globe. Or maybe they believed in sex education.

Anyway, I didn't know they had a nationalist party. Perhaps that's why Malcolm's so keen on her and McCain.

Ageism and sexism come together.

By

on August 31, 2008 2:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Wonkette compares McCain/Palin to J Howard Marshall/Anna Nicole Smith. So inappropriate. Yet so funny. Please accept my apologies in advance.

OK, I should include two alternative takes on the last few weeks' US campaign to make this a serious post. First, Scotland on Sunday has just realised that either candidate could win. Andrew Sullivan makes the case for Obama the strategist in the Sunday Times - recommended.

Republicans attack the Greens.

By

on August 29, 2008 4:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Everyone's very excited about McCain's VP pick, Alaska's Iron Lady (left). Fair play, it's sucked the oxygen of publicity away from Obama's convention as planned.

It's also a good pitch for the PUMAs, although if they check out her position on abortion they'll be back with Barack. But won't she make McCain look, well, extremely old in a way that only Lonesome George normally looks?

Less well noticed, understandably, was a curious item from the Republicans' platform. On climate change they believe there's a need to "resist no-growth radicalism". You mean the kind of thinking that says a world of finite resources can't be subjected to endless economic growth? You mean Green thinking?

It's a pleasure to be on the opposite side from these clowns. Looks like we're onto Phase 3 of Gandhi's famous maxim, just one step from victory.

On an unrelated matter, thanks to the Scotsman for publishing one of my earlier entries yesterday, in their actual newspaper (but not online, oddly). I'm hoping to parlay this breakthrough into a regular and thoroughly impartial column. Note to Scotsman editors: you have my number. Call any time.

Update: the wonderful Chez has spotted how much a younger Palin resembles Britney. Pic here.

Storm clouds over McCain.

By

on August 29, 2008 10:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The news that a category 3 hurricane called Gustav could hit New Orleans this week is alarming local residents.

It's Republican convention week too, which is alarming McCain's team, and they say they'd postpone the balloon-drop if need be.

Another hurricane hitting Louisiana wouldn't just remind Americans of the utter disgrace of Bush's response to Katrina: it might also close down oil extraction in the Gulf of Mexico, and remind them of how fragile and pointless a policy it is to try and drill your way out of peak oil.

Incidentally, I thought all hurricanes were female. Turns out they used to be, but since 1978 they alternate male/female each year, unless they get to Z.

Prime Minister Harper unveils ecoenergy renewable initiative.

By

on August 29, 2008 10:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)

What a headline.

It's Joe.

By

on August 23, 2008 9:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Hey Obama, you promised me I'd be the first to know your VP. How come I read it's Joe Biden on the BBC and still haven't had an email?

No matter. My good friends at Gristmill have posted a summary of Biden's environmental credentials. They seem decent for a US politician, bearing in mind the certain disappointment such situations always bring. Miles approves, too.

On the plus side, Biden's quoted as saying his number one magic wand request would be a solution to the energy problem, which does suggest a shortage of here-and-now ideas, but at least it's his top problem. He co-sponsored the toughest of the various climate change bills floating around the Senate, opposes extra drilling whether in Alaska or offshore, and backs renewables.

On the flipside, he's still pushing biofuels, although those positions may be old, so I won't rush to judgement there. His ideas on targets remain inadequate, but he's hardly alone on that in US politics. And one of the videos on that summary has him talking about "clean coal", which is always a clear sign that someone's been bought.

Still, compared to McCain... Just so long as the 1988 campaign doesn't turn around and bite him and Obama.

Ten golden tickets.

By

on August 18, 2008 9:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I'm on Barack Obama's spam list, just out of curiosity. Like at least hundreds of thousands of others, I'll be the first to know who his VP pick is.

It's Hillary. No, it's not.

Tonight I got an email signed "Barack" which told me about the ten "ordinary people" who get to meet him backstage before he accepts the nomination. It's like rock'n'roll, politics, you see.

The ten names interested me less than the ten states these individuals come from (links take you to coverage about them). Montana, North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Alaska and North Dakota. Now take a look at today's electoral-vote.com map.

It shows twelve swing states, including some you might not expect, like Montana, North Dakota, and Indiana. Virginia's the swingest of them all just now, as liberal Washington DC spreads south.

In short, Pennsylvania and Alaska are the only two on Barack's little list for hometown coverage that aren't currently showing swing-ness. But Pennsylvania went for Kerry by just 2%, and it's Clinton country, so Barack's just spreading the love. And Alaska has a very close Senate race going on, with a Republican in some very hot water.

Now this could, of course, be coincidence. And I'm Willy Wonka (both versions included - take your pick). The lady from Montana, incidentally, makes the same joke.

Lost in space.

By

on August 15, 2008 5:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Gristmill note that the most recent American government figures on driving show a substantial drop: a 4.7% reduction in mileage, motivated by the increase in oil prices (154Kb pdf).

A 4.7% drop amounts to a staggering 12.2 billion miles. In other words, one year's reduction in U.S. driving is equivalent to 489,940 fewer car trips around the world, a standard unit of mega-distance.

Looking at the bigger picture, the total American mileage over the last year is 2,954,326,000,000 miles, roughly. That's a little more than half a light year, the next largest such unit. Now, the nearest star system to our own is, as everyone knows, Alpha Centauri, which is 4.37 light years away.

Over George Bush's term of office, therefore, Americans will have collectively driven as far as Alpha Centauri, more than 25 trillion miles, and all at about 24.6 miles per gallon. Other sci-fi dorks may find this as shocking as I do.

Every time, a little more internet.

By

on August 13, 2008 12:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)

Each time Americans go round their protracted electoral cycle, it gets a little more internet. It doesn't seem to happen here in the same way - perhaps we're not quite at critical mass yet, or maybe we're slow learners.

Anyway, the attack ad and YouTube were made for each other. Next to zero cost to make (some dork with a copy of Final Cut), zero cost to distribute (Google pays), and easy to circulate. Also for free.

Here's two very different ones against McCain. They each take a very different tone, but both make me pretty anxious about the fact that he's even still in this race (and tightening - Electoral Vote has it at 289-249 in Obama's favour today).

First, here's a TPM one about what a senile fool he is. Especially about Czechoslovakia. And timetables. Not to mention dirt, and/or Frankenstein.

Next, the really scary one, thanks to Scribo Ergo Sum. I have seen about half of the clips from this already, but the whole package together shows a terrifying whole. Seriously, if these two are the choices, wouldn't seeing this make everyone more sensible than Strangelove himself back Obama?

Anyway, it's not just the Americans who're doing this, obviously. Here's one more, presumably a TV ad just ripped for YouTube, but it was done by the Jamaican Labour Party, they posted it officially, and it has a YouTube aesthetic about it. Aaron tells me that "don't draw mi tongue" means "don't provoke me into slagging you off", roughly.

Islamic and Green.

By

on August 12, 2008 1:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Some people think concern about the planet's future is a purely decadent Western activity, as if climate change, resource depletion and pollution won't hit the poorest hardest.

Wrong, wrong, wrong.

Greens are the only truly global movement, holding common ground with activists and politicians around the world. The latest addition to this list is former Indonesian president Abdurrahman Wahid, known as Gus Dur (left).

He is transforming the PKB party into an Islamic and environmentalist party, arguing for human rights and peace, and against logging and environmental destruction. This piece has the story, and sets out how nuclear power was declared haram or forbidden by Javanese clerics.

Why should politicians around the world care about the environment? That same article says that Islamic policians are recognising "that their rural base relies on environmental resources". Same as everyone else, whether urban or rural, in other words.

Commerce or conservation?

By

on August 10, 2008 6:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The First Minister has admitted that the plan to bring Chinese pandas to Edinburgh Zoo is "primarily a commercial transaction", not conservation. We knew that already, of course.

Pandas have been misused this way for centuries, as far back as the reign of Wu Zetian in the 7th century AD. Taiwan came under Panda Attack in 2006, and in 2007 the Chinese claimed they were giving up the habit, but actually they just started charging more.

Exactly what the Royal Bank of Scotland get out of it is unclear, but don't bet against some additional access to Chinese markets.

The truth isn't out there.

By

on August 1, 2008 1:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The European Court of Human Rights is now all that stands between Gary McKinnon and extradition to the US.

His alleged crime? Looking for UFO information on inadequately protected US military servers. He left notes pointing out security holes, but is now being threatened with life in prison.

This is a massive over-reaction, as has been noted elsewhere. For more updates on the campaign, see FreeGary.org.

One step closer to justice.

By

on July 21, 2008 10:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

It's not often the news makes me cheer out loud. But Radovan Karadzic, come on down! There's a cell in the Hague for you, next to the one where your buddy Milosevic cheated justice.

Oh, and message for Ratko Mladic, you're next. Sweet dreams!

At the intersection of Internet and Politics.

By

on July 20, 2008 12:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Meet Sean Tevis (left), from Kansas, who got depressed and annoyed that his local representative is anti-gay, anti-abortion and pro-censorship. Then he decided to run for office himself instead. Someone told him he needed fifty-two people to donate $500 to get a campaign together, but he reckoned three thousand people giving $8.34 was more likely.

Sean's a web dork, and a fan of xkcd, a surprisingly funny stick-person comic, and the web bit of his campaign looks like this. Then it got discussed on my favourite website, which it turns out he's a member of. And he's waaay over his three thousand donors. Well done internets. Bring on the actual election.

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